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INEGI estimates Mexico's economy grew 3.7% year over year in September, led by trade and services

The nowcast shows only a 0.1% month-over-month gain; the final figure will come with the IGAE in a few weeks.

By Miguel Díaz Miró · Responsible editor ·
Chart of Mexico's economic activity published by INEGI

Mexico's economic activity likely grew 3.7% year over year in September 2026, according to the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) released Tuesday, Oct. 20, by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). Compared with August, the estimated gain is far smaller: 0.1% month over month.

What the numbers say

According to INEGI's estimate:

  • Tertiary activities (trade and services): +4.0% year over year and +0.1% from the previous month.
  • Secondary activities (industry, manufacturing, construction): +3.6% year over year and +0.1% month over month.
  • Total economy: +3.7% year over year, +0.1% month over month.

The gap between the annual and monthly figures is easy to read: the economy is above where it was a year ago, but from one month to the next it barely moved.

An estimate, not the final number

The IOAE is a statistical model INEGI has published since 2020 to get ahead of the Global Economic Activity Indicator (IGAE), the official figure. The nowcast comes out about three weeks after the month ends; the IGAE takes about eight. That means September's figure may be revised once the institute publishes the corresponding IGAE.

For context, last week the International Monetary Fund projected Mexico would grow 1.5% for all of 2026. One strong month on an annual basis does not change the full-year picture by itself; what matters is whether the pace holds through the fourth quarter.

What it means for Cancún

Most jobs in Cancún depend on the tertiary sector: hotels, restaurants, retail, tourist transportation and services in general. That this is the group growing fastest in INEGI's estimate is, in principle, a positive sign for people who earn a living from tourism and consumer spending. Still, a 0.1% monthly gain points to moderate momentum.

How to use this data for your own finances:

  • Don't treat it as a guarantee. It is a preliminary estimate; wait for the IGAE before making big decisions such as taking on a long-term loan.
  • If you run a business, compare your September sales with September 2025, not just with August: it's the same logic INEGI uses and gives a clearer sense of the trend.
  • Check official sources. INEGI posts its bulletins and release calendar at inegi.org.mx, in the press room section.

The next key figure for household budgets is inflation for the first half of October, which INEGI has scheduled for release this same week.

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