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Mexico's economy likely grew 1.7% year-on-year in June, driven by commerce and services: INEGI

The Timely Indicator of Economic Activity points to a 0.2% monthly gain after May's dip. Services — the engine of Quintana Roo — are growing 2.2% annually, twice the pace of industry.

By Miguel Díaz Miró · Responsible editor ·
Chart of Mexico's economic activity trending upward

Mexico's economic activity likely grew 1.7% in June 2026 compared with the same month last year, according to the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) published July 21 by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) in bulletin 428/26.

Month-on-month, the institute anticipates a 0.2% gain over May, a month in which the economy had slipped 0.3%. That would put activity at its highest level of the year at the close of the first half: 106.8 index points (2018 base), per the same estimate.

By major groups, INEGI expects tertiary activities — commerce and services — to grow 2.2% year-on-year, while secondary activities — industry, construction, mining and electricity — would advance just 0.5%. In May, industry had come in flat at 0.0% annually, according to the Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity the institute has already released.

What is the IOAE and why does it matter?

The IOAE is a statistical preview: using econometric models, INEGI estimates how the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) — Mexico's monthly GDP proxy — will move, about five weeks before the official figure comes out. It does not replace the traditional calculation, but it shows early whether the economy is speeding up or slowing down. The definitive June figure is due in August, and the next IOAE will be published August 20, 2026.

The view from Quintana Roo

Services growing at twice the pace of industry matters for the state: Quintana Roo's economy overwhelmingly depends on tertiary activities — hotels, restaurants, commerce, tourist transport. An expanding national services sector usually reflects active domestic consumption and tourism, the two channels that sustain most jobs in Cancún, Playa del Carmen and the Riviera Maya. Just this July 21, INEGI itself reported that Quintana Roo's retail trade grew 1.7% year-on-year in May, in line with that trend.

The IOAE estimates, with confidence intervals and full data tables, can be checked free of charge at inegi.org.mx in the indicator's research section.

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