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IMF sees Mexico growing 1.5% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027: what it means for your wallet in Cancún

The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for this year and trimmed 2027 slightly; its 2026 figure matches the Bank of Mexico's.

By Miguel Díaz Miró · Responsible editor ·
Cover of the IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Mexico's economy to grow 1.5% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, according to its October World Economic Outlook, released this week at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.

The 2026 forecast is three tenths of a point higher than the 1.2% the IMF published in its July update, while the 2027 figure slipped one tenth from 1.9%. According to the IMF's own database, Mexico grew 0.5% in 2025, so 2026 would mark a pickup, though still below 2% a year.

Why the forecast went up

The IMF credits exports, including those linked to artificial intelligence value chains such as data-center equipment assembly, along with a stabilization in investment. At the same time, it warns that trade uncertainty will keep weighing on activity.

Globally, the Fund projects growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, with global inflation at 4.7% this year, driven largely by higher energy and food prices. Risks it flags include armed conflicts, a possible correction in AI expectations, trade tensions and high public debt.

The inflation the IMF expects

For Mexico, the IMF database puts average annual inflation at 3.8% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027, still above the Bank of Mexico's 3% target.

In line with Banxico

The 2026 figure matches the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), which in its April–June Quarterly Report, presented in late August, raised its growth estimate for this year from 1.1% to 1.5%, within a 1.0%–2.0% range. For 2027, the central bank expects 2.0%, slightly above the IMF. In that same report, Banxico pushed back to the last quarter of 2027 the point at which it expects inflation to return to target.

What it means for Cancún residents

Moderate growth and inflation that is slow to come down usually mean rising prices that keep squeezing household budgets. Some practical tips:

  • Review your debt: if you have credit cards or loans, compare the Total Annual Cost (CAT) across lenders on Condusef's Financial Institutions Bureau (buro.gob.mx) before signing up or switching.
  • Protect your savings from inflation: with prices rising close to 4% a year, money kept without a return loses value; compare regulated options and confirm the institution is authorized.
  • Plan with a cushion: both the IMF and Banxico point to uncertainty, so an emergency fund is a good idea.

The IMF figures are projections and may change in its next update, expected in January 2027.

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