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HR Ratings cuts Mexico's long-term sovereign rating one notch to BBB; the country keeps investment grade

The Mexican rating agency kept a stable outlook and affirmed the short-term rating. The Finance Ministry noted all eight agencies that rate Mexico keep it at investment grade.

By Miguel Díaz Miró · Responsible editor ·
Mexico's Finance Ministry building

Rating agency HR Ratings lowered Mexico's long-term sovereign rating from BBB+ to BBB, with a stable outlook, and affirmed the short-term rating at HR3, Mexico's Finance Ministry (SHCP) said on Oct. 15, 2026.

According to the agency, the move reflects deteriorating public finances and lower growth expectations, which will keep pressure on debt levels. HR Ratings acknowledged efforts to rein in the deficit after its historically high level in 2024, but said the measures taken have not brought the Public Sector Borrowing Requirements — the broadest measure of the deficit — below 4% of GDP.

What the Finance Ministry said

In its statement, the SHCP stressed that the agency recognized fiscal consolidation, stronger public revenue and the recovery in economic activity. The ministry cited:

  • A 2025 fiscal adjustment of 1.3 percentage points of GDP, the largest since 1990.
  • Annual GDP growth of 2.1% in the second quarter of 2026 and a 3.4% rise in the IGAE activity index in July.
  • Exports up 29% year over year from January to August.
  • Foreign direct investment of $35 billion in the first half, a record according to the ministry.
  • International reserves of more than $256 billion.
  • About 80% of federal debt in pesos and at fixed rates.

The SHCP noted that Mexico remains investment grade with all eight agencies that rate its sovereign debt.

Context: a year ago the news was different

In October 2025, HR Ratings had affirmed Mexico at BBB+ and raised its outlook from negative to stable, the Finance Ministry reported at the time. This year's action reverses that by one notch, while leaving the outlook unchanged.

What it means for your wallet in Cancún

A sovereign rating measures the government's ability to repay its debt. It doesn't change overnight what you pay at the grocery store or on your mortgage, but investors watch it closely:

  • If other agencies followed suit, the government could pay more to borrow, which over time tends to show up in higher loan rates for businesses and households.
  • The exchange rate can react to this kind of news. In Cancún, where much of the economy earns dollars from tourism, a weaker peso helps those paid in dollars and makes imported goods more expensive.
  • If you're planning a mortgage or car loan, it's a good time to compare the Total Annual Cost (CAT) and consider fixed-rate options, which protect you from possible increases.

A one-notch cut with a stable outlook, still within investment grade, is a moderate move. What matters next is whether the larger international agencies change their view in upcoming reviews, and how the 2027 Economic Package turns out; the Senate must approve it by Oct. 31.

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