Treasury projects tax expenditures on IEPS fuel stimuli and other items to reach 1.76 trillion pesos in 2027

The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) estimated, in the official document Tax Expenditures 2026 (Renuncias Recaudatorias 2026), that the amounts the federal treasury will forgo due to differentiated treatments, exemptions, fiscal stimuli and credits will reach 1.67 trillion pesos in 2026 —equivalent to 4.48 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)— and 1.76 trillion pesos in 2027, around 4.45 percent of GDP.

The report, published by the Ministry as part of the complementary information of the Economic Package, refers to the total forgone revenue from tax expenditures, of which the stimuli to the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) applied to gasoline and diesel are one of the most visible components for households due to their direct impact on fuel prices.

According to the weekly agreements the SHCP publishes in the Federal Official Gazette (DOF), the fiscal stimulus to IEPS for Premium gasoline and diesel has stood at zero percent since January 1, 2026, which means drivers and transporters pay the full tax on each liter. In the case of Magna gasoline, the stimulus is adjusted each week according to the international oil reference, a mechanism that cushions sharp increases in the consumer price.

What it means for Cancún and Quintana Roo

Quintana Roo typically shows average gasoline and diesel prices above the national average due to its position as the final point in the fuel logistics chain, with the Pemex storage and distribution terminal in Chetumal as the main receiving point for the south of the state. For tourist transportation, the fishing industry and the delivery fleets that supply the hotel zone, the cost of diesel is a decisive input in the price structure.

An adjustment in the tax expenditure associated with IEPS —whether the complete withdrawal of the Magna stimulus or lower cushioning— would have a direct effect on the operating costs of these sectors and, ultimately, on the prices faced by local consumers. Formal discussion of these changes will take place within the 2027 Economic Package, which the federal Executive must submit to Congress no later than September 8.

A practical guide for consumers

The Federal Consumer Protection Agency (PROFECO) maintains the 'Who is Who in Gasoline Prices' portal, which allows real-time consultation of the price per liter at each gas station in Cancún, Playa del Carmen, Tulum and Chetumal. The Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) publishes maximum and historical prices by region, and the SHCP releases each Friday in the DOF the percentage of IEPS stimulus applicable the following week for each type of fuel.