BBVA Research expects limited impact on Mexico from new U.S. tariffs thanks to USMCA
The bank's analysis estimates that most Mexican goods will keep their exemption by complying with treaty rules, although the measure represents a possible tension with the current trade framework.
BBVA's economic analysis unit estimated that the new 10 percent tariff applied by the U.S. government to goods coming from Mexico will have a limited direct impact on the Mexican economy, insofar as most of the products shipped to the U.S. market comply with the rules of origin of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and, on that basis, will retain the tariff exemption.
According to the report, released starting July 24, 2026, other investigated economies face tariffs of up to 12.5 percent, so Mexico retains a favorable relative position against direct competitors in the North American market. The measure was implemented by Washington based on Section 301 of the U.S. trade law, invoked following determinations about alleged practices associated with the prohibition on importing goods produced with forced labor.
BBVA warned that, although the macroeconomic effect is expected to be contained, the application of the new duties represents a possible violation of the USMCA to the extent that it imposes additional burdens on goods that in principle should circulate freely within the zone.
What it means for Cancún and Quintana Roo
Quintana Roo does not depend on manufactured exports to the U.S. market in the same proportion as northern and Bajío states, but it does participate through two concrete channels. The first is trade in honey, habanero chili, handicrafts and Caribbean fishery products placed in the United States, with relatively small volume but relevant for local producers. The second is indirect exposure to national manufacturing activity, which sustains part of the domestic spending that reaches the tourist destination.
The federal Ministry of Economy maintains the official USMCA portal (gob.mx/tmec) with information on rules of origin, certification procedures and notices to exporters. The National Chamber of Commerce (Canaco) in Cancún accompanies small local exporters in reviewing customs documentation; in the event of any operational change, the recommendation is to verify directly with the corresponding customs administration before shipping merchandise.
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