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Analysts raise Mexico's 2026 growth outlook to 1.4% and see inflation below 3.9%: Banxico survey

The 42 forecasting groups polled by the Bank of Mexico expect the dollar near 17.5 pesos at year-end; insecurity remains the top drag on the economy.

By Miguel Díaz Miró · Responsible editor ·
Bank of Mexico building facade

Private-sector economists polled by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) raised their forecast for Mexico's 2026 economic growth to 1.40%, according to the central bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters for September, published on October 1, 2026.

The survey gathers answers from 42 domestic and foreign economic analysis and consulting groups. Banxico uses it each month to gauge market expectations for inflation, growth, the exchange rate and interest rates.

What analysts expect

  • GDP growth 2026: 1.40%, an improvement over the August survey.
  • Headline inflation at the end of 2026: slightly below 3.9%, another decline from the previous month. That is inside the band Banxico tolerates around its target (3% ± one percentage point), though still above the point target.
  • Exchange rate at the end of 2026: around 17.5 pesos per dollar.
  • Benchmark interest rate: around 6.5% by year-end.

What could hold the economy back

According to the survey, the factors most likely to slow economic activity in coming months are public insecurity (19% of mentions), foreign trade policy (13%), lack of structural change (10%) and rule-of-law problems (9%).

What it means for your wallet in Cancún

  • Prices: expected inflation near 3.9% means that, on average, something costing 100 pesos today would cost about 104 a year from now. If your wages or tip income grow less than that, you lose purchasing power.
  • Loans: if the benchmark rate stays near 6.5%, credit cards, personal loans and car loans are unlikely to get much cheaper soon. Before signing, compare the CAT (total annual cost) across lenders using Condusef's simulator.
  • Savings: at that benchmark level, government debt instruments (such as Cetes) and term deposits still pay above expected inflation.
  • The dollar: in a tourism-driven economy, the exchange rate directly affects tips, vacation rentals and the price of imported goods. Analysts see the year closing near 17.5 pesos, below this week's levels (above 18 pesos, according to Banxico's official FIX rate).

The survey's figures are not official Banxico forecasts: the central bank publishes them as an input for monetary policy. The full survey and its historical series are available on the Bank of Mexico website under Publications and press.

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